Trade Nivesh Investment Advisor

Monday, December 9, 2019

Nifty IT underperforms dragged by TCS | Trade Nivesh

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HDFC, BPCL up 2%, YES Bank most active | Trade NIvesh 





About 972 shares have advanced, 1347 shares declined, and 181 shares are unchanged.

Indian stock market continues trading on a positive note but is off the high point of the day with Sensex up 49.81 points at 40494.96, and the Nifty added 6.80 points at 11938.30.


Nifty IT shed a percent after rupee trade higher against the US dollar at 71.12 level. The top losers included Tata Consultancy Services which shed over 3 percent followed by Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies.


Metals along with auto stocks continue to trade in green led by SAIL, Jindal Steel & Power, MOIL, JSW Steel, Tata Steel and Vedanta.


The top gainers from the auto space included Maruti Suzuki which jumped over 2 percent after its production rose in November by 4.33 percent, after having reduced output for nine straight months due to lower demand. The other gainers included Bharat Forge, Ashok Leyland, MRF and Motherson Sumi Systems.


The top gainers from the Nifty index are BPCL, JSW Steel, HDFC, Adani Ports and Axis Bank while the top losers include TCS, HCL Tech, Cipla , SBI and Larsen & Toubro.


The most active stocks are YES Bank, State Bank of India, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Maruti Suzuki and Reliance Industries.


About 972 shares have advanced, 1347 shares declined, and 181 shares are unchanged.

Trade Nivesh | long-only thematic equity portfolio

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RIL, HDFC Bank among 10 stocks that dominate Jefferies | Trade Nivesh



Insurance is another sector wherein Jefferies has 9 percent weightage to India's life insurance space in its portfolio.


Global brokerage house Jefferies has double weight on India, but given the low weightage, Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy, said he should be triple overweight on the country.


The research house disclosed its Asia (ex-Japan) long-only thematic equity portfolio in its December report; wherein, it has 46 percent weightage to only Indian companies under various themes.


Out of which, it has 31 percent weightage to India's BFSI sector (banking, financial services and insurance) and of that, banking sector's (only private and not public) weightage stood at 15 percent.

It has given 5 percent weightage each to HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, India's three largest private-sector lenders.

"In Jefferies long term portfolio (ex-Asia Japan), the constant area of exposure has been Indian private sector banks. The private sector bank index performed well," Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at global investment banking firm Jefferies Group said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.


The Nifty Private Bank index shot up nearly 15 percent so far in 2019, outperforming benchmark Nifty50 index that gained 11 percent in the same period, thanks to easing NPA concerns and structural reforms announced by the government.

HDFC Bank and Axis Bank gained 20 percent each in last one year while ICICI Bank led the charge with 51 percent gains.

Majority of brokerages remained bullish especially on ICICI Bank even after recent rally as they will expect double-digit returns in the next one year. In fact, many brokerages expect the stock to cross Rs 600 levels in coming quarters.


"With asset quality issues getting sorted, ICICI Bank appears firmly positioned to deliver healthy sustainable growth, led by continued investments in technology and further expansion in digital offerings. We thus estimate RoA/RoE of 1.6 percent/15.7 percent in FY21. Reiterate Buy with a revised SOTP-based target price of Rs 625," Motilal Oswal said.

Jefferies has also given 5 percent weightage to Reliance Industries, which comes under India Internet theme, in its thematic equity portfolio.

The stock rallied 34 percent in the last one year and became the most valued company in India by crossing Rs 10 lakh crore in market cap, thanks to its consistent focus on consumer businesses including Reliance Jio where it recently raised tariffs and Reliance Retail.

Most brokerages have a buy call on the stock even after recent rally as they still expect double-digit returns in next one year. In fact, global brokerages expect the stock to cross Rs 2,000 mark in next one year.

After tariff hike, CLSA increased its target price on Reliance Industries to Rs 2,010 (from Rs 1,710 earlier), implying a 30 percent potential upside from current levels following expectations of strong growth in telecom business with the strong subscriber base.

Nomura also raised its target price to Rs 2,020 (from Rs 1,785 earlier) as with the sharp hikes, Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) is likely to increase over the next several quarters and more tariff hikes look likely.

In housing finance segment, it has 4 percent weightage on country's largest housing finance company HDFC and in non-banking finance space, it has 3 percent weightage on Bajaj Finance, the leading and strong outperformer non-banking finance company due to its strong business model.

Insurance is another sector wherein Jefferies has given 9 percent weightage to India's life insurance space in its portfolio, of which it has 5 percent weight to SBI Life Insurance and 4 percent to HDFC Life Insurance.

Both stocks rallied more than 50 percent in the last nine months, backed by consistent earnings growth.

Insurance has been underpenetrated sector in India compared to developed markets and has much much scope for growth in the years to come, experts said.

Among others, Jefferies has given 4 percent weightage to Dalmia Bharat, which comes under its cement theme and 6 percent weight to Godrej Properties, which falls under property theme.

Friday, December 6, 2019

RBI Shock hits Nifty holds 11,900 | Trade Nivesh

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Trade Nivesh The broader market underperformed – the S&P BSE Mid-cap index fell 1.2 percent, while the S&P BSE Small-cap index was down 0.86 percent on December 6.



Conflicting signs from the US and China on the trade deal and the Reserve Bank of India’s status quo on rates put brakes on the bull surge as both the Sensex and the Nifty closed the week with losses of about 1 percent.


The Nifty, which hit a record high of 12,158 last week, failed to hold onto the momentum and closed with losses of 1.1 percent for the week ended December 6.


The Sensex, which rose to a record high of 41,163 last week, ended with losses of 0.85 percent for the week ended December 6.

Let’s look at the final tally for December 6–the Sensex fell 334 points or 0.82 percent to 40,445 , while the Nifty closed with losses of 0.81 percent to 11,921.

Sectorally, action was seen in the telecom space, while selling pressure was witnessed in the public sector, auto, finance, realty and power index.

The broader market underperformed – the BSE Midcap index fell 1.2 percent, while the BSE Smallcap index was down 0.86 percent.

Experts are of the view that selling was largely seen in the rate-sensitive pack after the RBI policy outcome. The consolidation may continue in the coming week as well, but 11,700-11,800 is likely to act as crucial support for the Nifty, they say.

"Selling was witnessed across the board wherein PSU banks and media pack lost maximum. The broader indices too remained under pressure and lost over a percent each," Ajit Mishra, VP -Research, Religare Broking Ltd, told Moneycontrol.

"The recent decline shows disappointment among the participants post the RBI policy outcome as the majority were hoping for a rate cut. And, since the Nifty has breached its immediate support at 11,900, we may see further profit taking ahead. However, we feel it’s a healthy correction and 11,700-11,800 zone would continue to act as a cushion," he said.

Top Nifty gainers – JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Infratel

Top Nifty losers – Zee Entertainment, SBI, YES Bank

Stocks & sectors

Sectorally, the BSE Telecom index rose 0.2 percent while selling pressure was seen in the BSE Public Sector index which fell 2.3 percent, followed by the auto index, which was down by 1.78 percent, and the BSE Realty index closed lower by 1.3 percent.

Volume spike of 100-300% was seen in stocks like Voltas, RBL Bank, Divi’s Laboratories, Pidilite Industries, Dr Reddy’s, and Century Textiles.

Long Build-up: Equitas, Berger Paints, Bharti Infratel

Short Build-up: RBL Bank, Apollo Tyres, Dish Tv

Stocks in news

PSU banks bleed: Share price of PSU Banks shed up to 6 percent on December 6 after the RBI pressed pause on rate cut. Central Bank of India, SBI, PNB, Union Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank were the top losers.

Vodafone Idea: Vodafone Idea share price fell 5 percent on December 6 after Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said, “Vodafone Idea will shut down if the government does not provide any relief.”

YES Bank: Yes Bank ended lower by about 10 percent after Moody's downgraded the bank's ratings and assigned a negative outlook.


Gati plunged 5 percent and Allcargo Logistics added 3 percent on December 6 after the latter acquired majority stake in the courier company.


Vascon Engineers: Vascon Engineers share price gained more than 3 percent on December 6 after the company won an order from the Airports Authority of India.


Andhra Bank: Andhra Bank share price shed over 3 percent on December 6 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed a penalty of Rs 25 lakh.


Technical View


The Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily charts but managed to close above its crucial support at 11,900 levels


The index closed below its 5, 20-Day Moving Average, and 13-Day EMA


In the next couple of trading sessions if the Nifty slips below 11,888, then correction shall initially get expanded up to 11,800.


Experts feel that for time being upsides shall remain capped around 12,081 levels.

Positional traders can continue to remain short on the index with a stop above 12,000 levels on a closing basis and look for a bigger targets placed around 11,730.

Three levels: 11,888, 12,081, 12,158.

Maruti recalls 63,493 units of Ciaz, Ertiga, XL6 to fix faulty part | Trade Nivesh

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Trade Nivesh "The company will inspect 63,493 vehicles of petrol SHVS of Ciaz, Ertiga and XL6 for a possible issue with the Motor Generator Unit (MGU)," MSI said in a statement.




Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) on Friday said it is recalling 63,493 units of petrol smart hybrid (SHVS) variants of Ciaz, Ertiga and XL6 models to rectify faulty motor generator unit (MGU).

"The company will inspect 63,493 vehicles of petrol SHVS of Ciaz, Ertiga and XL6 for a possible issue with the Motor Generator Unit (MGU)," MSI said in a statement.

A possible defect may have occurred in the MGU during manufacturing by an overseas global part supplier, it added.

The vehicles were manufactured between January 1, 2019 to November 21, 2019.

"In the interest of its customers, the company has decided to proactively recall the vehicles for inspection and those found ok will be released immediately," MSI said.

Vehicles requiring replacement of faulty part will be retained for part replacement free of cost, it added.

Starting December 6, 2019 owners of the suspected vehicles under this recall campaign will be contacted by Maruti Suzuki dealers for inspection and replacement of the faulty part, the country's largest car maker said.

Recall campaigns are undertaken globally to rectify faults that may be potential safety defects.

Andhra Bank share price falls 3% after RBI | Trade NIvesh

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Trade Nivesh | The bank was fined for non-compliance with RBI's directions on KYC norms, anti-money laundering standards and opening of current accounts.



Andhra Bank share price shed over 3 percent intraday on December 6 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed a penalty of Rs 25 lakh.

Andhra Bank was fined for failing to comply with RBI’s directions on know your customer (KYC) norms, anti-money laundering standards and opening of current accounts. The bank has already taken necessary preventive measures, the state lender said in a filing to the exchanges.


"This action is based on the deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or agreement entered into by the bank with their customers," the RBI said.

"After considering the reply received from the bank and submissions made during the personal hearing, the RBI came to the conclusion that the aforesaid charges of non-compliance with the RBI directions were sustained and warranted imposition of monetary penalty."

At 1430 hours, Andhra Bank was quoting at Rs 17.60, down Rs 0.65, or 3.56 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 18.25 and an intraday low of Rs 17.60.

Safe & Accurate Trade | Trade Nivesh

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Thursday, December 5, 2019

Trade Nivesh Investment Advisor

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